BETHLEHEM CARREÑO MADRID 03/07/2011 8:30
Source: http://www.publico.es/dinero/364865/el-hambre -de-earnings-inflation-the-price-of-the-food
An rushed across Moscow's Red Square wearing a mask apocalyptic. Moscow is surrounded by fire caused by the hottest summer in history. Inclement meterológica not only leaves unpublished images. The worst drought in a century plagues the continent and is carried forward wheat crops in the south. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, imposes an exceptional measure to contain prices: no wheat exports until 2011.
Across the world, a trader (broker) of the largest commodity market in the world makes its calculations. Russia is the world's third largest exporter of the cereal and Canada, the second will have one of its worst harvest in three years. The opportunity is served on a platter. In just two days (4 and 5 August), wheat rises by 8.42% and the volume that moves collide with the ceilings imposed by the regulator to curb speculation in a delicate market. In the latter half of 2010, the cumulative increase reached 44%. And rising.
The butterfly effect extends six months after the small Tunisian village of Sidi Bou Zid. The price of flour and other foods, has doubled. Tunisia, along with Egypt and Iraq, is one of the leading importers of Russian wheat. The young Mohamed Bouazizi burns to bonzo, anxious because they have taken their business and can not feed his family.
As this cycle, particularly hyperbolic and intense, repeated every year worldwide event sequences produced by the disruption of food prices, inflated by the action of large institutional investors. The outcome of these chapters is, at best, a riot, because in most cases it is triggered are famines.
"Financial speculation impact on prices." Experts from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), FAO and World Bank agree on this point. Experts from these organizations decline to talk or prefer not to be quoted when asked about the role of hedge funds (hedge funds), but assume that their role is key as it amplifies the effects of crop failure or an unexpected surge demand.
however, quantify the impact of price speculation is almost impossible, experts say. The Institute for Agriculture and U.S. Trade Policy (IATP), collects data from a study prepared by a consultant that is attributed to the effect of speculation up to 31% of the rise in corn prices in July 2008, the previous bubble in food prices. Actors
That is very clear is the financial guru George Soros, who was called to testify before a U.S. Senate committee in 2008 to explain the role of speculation in rising commodities prices premiums. From "unstabilized" and "harmful" tycoon labeled a massive influx of speculators in commodities, yet they are still his favorite investments (especially gold and oil) a day.
"There are three types of financial market players. Are derivatives dealers, the indices that follow commodity and hedge funds. Between 12% and 16% of actors that influence the price of raw materials really do not trade with them, "said a former broker at the Chicago Board, the largest commodity market in the world." The volume of Chicago has exceeded U.S. $ 300.0000 million and three years has tripled. 80% of those participating in this market are investment banks, this particular expert.
Among all participants, the most powerful is the indestructible (being one of the few survivors of the financial meltdown) investment bank Goldman Sachs, in 2008 reached a third of their net income (about $ 1,500 million) by investing in commodities. Their index Goldman Sachs Commodity Index went from having an investment of just U.S. $ 8,000 million in 2000 to 100,000 today hoarding billions of dollars invested against the evolution of raw materials (including oil). Only in 2010, the rate was revalued by 50%, up nearly 10% in December. So far this year, rising 14% and slash.
These billions flowing into raw materials investments lead to high volatility in raw material prices. "The more trading volume, the greater the volatility, "said FAO economist Abdolreza Abbassian.
food profiteering is as old as agriculture itself, but its appeal as an instrument of profit soared in the last decade the discovery and a unique investment opportunity. Profitability is assured because the global demand in line with rising population and greater purchasing power in emerging countries, ensures their consistent growth. "There is hardly another product in which to invest now real demand for which is so clear, that is, that has such good fundamentals, "said Francisco Lopez Olles, expert materials commodities and currencies. "Ultimately, this is the result of the operations of central banks to have more liquidity in the markets (the so-called quantitative easing). The money has to find somewhere profitability," he concludes.
The head of the financial sector of IE Business School, Manuel Romera, recalls that "in ten operations, nine are speculative." However, Romero suggests that "the derivative financial product is usually driven by the underlying real agricultural output." To speculate in the commodities market is not necessary to have not one ounce of real marketed product.
The market suffers from the same defects as other regulatory negotiation financial derivatives. Over the counter transactions (over the counter) are made without note address, so that no one knows who sells or who buys on the market. The control of these operations is one of the main demands of the international experts.
addition, a regulatory gap between the U.S. and Europe in time of a global market makes no sense. Thus, in the U.S., which has its own Commission to regulate the commodities market, have placed limits on the volumes and the band of fluctuation of prices on food so that you can not alter the actual price merchandise. In Europe, there are no such barriers in certain materials such as sugar, coffee and cocoa. The FAO has found that to take advantage of it, whole cargo ship this product from New York to Amsterdam, Antwerp and Hamburg, to be able to negotiate there with them without limit.
Although monitoring for greater control is in place (London, one of the largest markets worldwide, has promised to have it ready for 2012), the lobby of the investment banks and big agricultural intermediaries is pushing to delay and alleviate the possible implementation of these new regulations.
"The role of hedge funds is highly controversial. It is one of the major factors, but not unique. Both supply and demand are very tight and tense that the market, "appeasement from the OECD, remembering that there are many issues that fatten the price of food." In my opinion, the end investment funds rather than following the trend creating it. The amplified ", sentenced the same sources of the organization.
A single investment fund bought 7% of world production in a day
A single hedge fund is grabbed by the neck since months all chocolate manufacturers in the world. Armajaro background, driven by a well known British executive, Anthony Ward, known as 'Chocfinger' (finger chocolate), bought last July to 240,000 tons of cocoa, or 7% of world production in a single operation. The purchase, which was made on Euronext, where there are no limits on this type of material, cocoa prices soared to their highest since 1977. The thousands of tons of cocoa are cumulative, according to knowledgeable sources confirmed the operation of this newspaper, in stores in Hamburg, Antwerp and Amsterdam. Ward has backed cocoa, since one of its main producer, Ivory Coast, is virtually at civil war, which will soon be scarce product. According to British newspaper 'The Daily Telegraph, George Soros invested in this fund.
0 comments:
Post a Comment